AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7cfc4bcf5e118be1bc623656eb6812e5b146986e5df511cb9ce587fb585205
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 62c | 1,756$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.51 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 855.18$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 50c | 841.53$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.03 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5901…b1c3backed No | 9c | 834.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +172.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Yes | 43c | 596.22$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed No | 59c | 596.17$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.97 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 394.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…feb7backed No | 16c | 362.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…89bfbacked No | 26c | 336.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…6c68backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bb…f88abacked Yes | 29c | 278.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 273.96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.19 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed Yes | 78c | 258$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 35c | 249.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 246.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.86 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 25c | 230$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked Yes | 35c | 225$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked Yes | 35c | 225$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 190$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…7608backed No | 53c | 188.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 8c | 179.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 30c | 164.32$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…3e32backed Yes | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…64adbacked No | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…2d0cbacked No | 12c | 128.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +174.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…974bbacked No | 17c | 118.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.38per pick | 20cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x68c8…b100backed Yes | 44c | 113.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…342ebacked Yes | 44c | 111.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed No | 51c | 102.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ce…dd52backed Yes | 43c | 101.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…8ac9backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 89.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 62c | 83.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…6c42backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed No | 70c | 71.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb4…9688backed No | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +483%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…eabdbacked No | 44c | 57.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0126…b3ccbacked Yes | 38c | 52.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…bc38backed No | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…9a97backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 64c | 38.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4800…8159backed Yes | 31c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…1279backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 46c | 26.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…514bbacked No | 56c | 26.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…19c4backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.