AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe710127903f17a408ec46d332f0b524f987d472c15605b63b2ee67ac6ffbd75e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 1c | 3,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed No | 2c | 2,851$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x601f…76adbacked No | 1c | 2,383$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 1,226$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed No | 3c | 962.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 819$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 3c | 795.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed No | 2c | 670.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 537.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…b725backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 474$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked No | 3c | 320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 15c | 190.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 11c | 186.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?this page
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before July 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.