Music · resolved market
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 200k and 225k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa31e70694eadcbba3a0bff9a667b29631dfcef377ad90c9804520b4d89f483da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked No | 7c | 1,600$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes | 77c | 1,479$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 45c | 1,120$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.18 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 44c | 899.87$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.87 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 54c | 882.61$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 511.18$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.45 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 76c | 345.98$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.74 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 260$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 75c | 197.04$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 38c | 185.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…081bbacked Yes | 70c | 98.97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked No | 66c | 94.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 35c | 94.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 46c | 92.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 46c | 48.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 46.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 29.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 42c | 27.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…272fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 200k and 225k?this page
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be at least 250k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 175k and 200k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 225k and 250k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.