Music · resolved market
Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 225k and 250k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0165fa5ad68d4772c6fc6ce0de59e4efcb5b64ffa5cfa92a9aa905311dc7f240
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 52c | 3,318$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked No | 75c | 942.48$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 895.06$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.02 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 511.19$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.84 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 55c | 335$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 41c | 291.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed No | 60c | 226$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 46c | 215$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 64c | 140$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 74.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 44c | 48.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 34.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 225k and 250k?this page
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be at least 250k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 175k and 200k?No won
- Will "Iceman" - Drake 2nd week album sales be between 200k and 225k?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.