Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e314306f5af508143e1f0e7d52de77b2c731b40575360c14ab638cb246e3643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 18c | 5,187$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.27 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,025$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.26 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 75c | 1,515$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.86 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 19c | 1,310$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.61 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,028$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked Yes | 26c | 768.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 78c | 742.71$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 18c | 703.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 676.04$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.74 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 74c | 500$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 19c | 478.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 77c | 456.74$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 34c | 441$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 78c | 395.73$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.06 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 9c | 392.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes | 20c | 380.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +53%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked Yes | 27c | 376.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 22c | 356.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.93 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 19c | 333.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.54 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 10c | 299.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 76c | 248.54$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…cec7backed Yes | 27c | 231.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 21c | 227.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 216.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x619d…692ebacked Yes | 27c | 200.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 18c | 196.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 33c | 190.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 186.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…4ecebacked Yes | 27c | 177.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 16c | 172.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 18c | 164.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 163.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 14c | 157$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 37c | 154.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 71c | 152.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 152.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 149.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…ab9ebacked Yes | 27c | 147.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 27c | 147.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…1075backed Yes | 27c | 142.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…28c4backed Yes | 27c | 130.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5496…079cbacked Yes | 27c | 128.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3326…c594backed Yes | 27c | 126.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd419…f051backed Yes | 27c | 126.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f69…164bbacked Yes | 27c | 122.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…c0e4backed Yes | 27c | 114.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…272fbacked Yes | 27c | 113.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 90.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 21c | 89.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 65c | 88.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 14c | 83.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +229.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 22c | 62.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 28c | 61.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xedd2…1e2fbacked Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 78c | 54.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed No | 77c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 30c | 42.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 32c | 31.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed No | 71c | 23.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…6e1dbacked No | 65c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.