Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d5399875aeb0d0b7a84cf7249362e736ca291f1f759d2eb0d71fa997b99b1cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b76…97dabacked No | 9c | 11,557$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Yes | 77c | 2,290$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.56 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 72c | 2,039$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.69 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,029$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 11c | 1,704$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.71 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 33c | 1,490$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…c8c2backed No | 3c | 1,167$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 997.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 76c | 954.51$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.96 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed Yes | 63c | 849.82$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.39 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 799.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked Yes | 71c | 700.53$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.24 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ba…4cedbacked No | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…7b07backed No | 2c | 667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…012fbacked No | 2c | 665$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…7e0dbacked No | 3c | 661$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…f978backed No | 3c | 661$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…6849backed No | 2c | 661$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x703d…80f6backed No | 20c | 501.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 6c | 469.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37af…2f21backed No | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.36 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 221.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 71c | 172.41$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 16c | 159$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 10c | 159$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 50c | 125.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 16c | 104.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…a949backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +10.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…8354backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 20c | 98.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 51c | 97.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 39c | 91.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked No | 39c | 89.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 81.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 76.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked Yes | 55c | 76.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d79…233ebacked No | 27c | 75.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 29c | 70.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1aaabacked No | 46c | 55.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…3fcbbacked No | 37c | 54.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 66c | 49.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…7a98backed Yes | 58c | 46.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 33c | 38.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 36c | 35.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…5d1bbacked No | 53c | 35.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 80c | 35.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed No | 53c | 33.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 80c | 33.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 60c | 30.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 50c | 28.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 53c | 21.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 56c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.