Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x999c477e6c9aedeaa28735dc02fe9076f8088a020b2ca329c0acc2d28876c4f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f47…f149backed Yes | 9c | 1,447$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe7…41fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,426$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd551…f560backed Yes | 9c | 1,408$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…829cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,060$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ef…5955backed Yes | 6c | 1,060$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…9b0dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,020$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…c643backed Yes | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…2cf8backed Yes | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…e85bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,010$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…c825backed Yes | 7c | 1,005$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…bc69backed Yes | 8c | 1,002$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…7d31backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…4db4backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 322.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 58c | 310.66$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 278.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 143.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 9c | 133.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 9c | 122.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…85b0backed Yes | 10c | 103.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 25c | 89.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 36c | 73.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 58.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 79c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 55c | 26.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.