Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa213bae19e682fe507ab9227968e18f88bf8ee194c75d946ecfd50dd8ff87d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 18c | 3,767$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.76 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 21c | 2,411$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.49 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 12c | 1,982$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.3 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 28c | 1,168$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 15c | 741.21$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 66c | 722.77$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 59c | 685$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.2 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 639.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 28c | 478$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 60c | 455$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.93 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 370$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 313.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 76c | 265.19$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 254.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 10c | 211.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 202.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 18c | 156.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 59c | 139.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 131.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 60c | 121.68$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 37c | 109.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 41c | 105.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cdf4backed Yes | 25c | 93.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 72c | 80.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…442abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…e391backed Yes | 15c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 35c | 66.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…ed9ebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d02…518fbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed No | 78c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…51ccbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…aa65backed No | 65c | 30.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 25.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 77c | 22.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…43debacked No | 76c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 76c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by May 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Shevchenko by September 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.