Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37e9fa09e605b87c7854ea2ae50c1f63b90f686f969a56cda41d519aa4f2d099
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34ab…f1dbbacked No | 52c | 2,654$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Yes | 48c | 1,246$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 38c | 1,083$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.94 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 11c | 743$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 76c | 681.57$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 11c | 666.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 73c | 476.04$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 11c | 472$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 8c | 423.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 40c | 398.73$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a03…0b5ebacked Yes | 52c | 368.1$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6586…c69cbacked No | 15c | 237.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 9c | 228$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 50c | 155.51$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2680…9e48backed No | 9c | 148.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 115.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 46c | 92.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 69.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 27c | 57.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 21c | 51.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 49c | 50.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +106%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 41c | 42.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0778…73d1backed No | 62c | 25.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eric Jones advance from the CA-04 primary election?this page
- Will Heath Fulkerson advance from the CA-04 primary election?No won
- Will John Wesley Tyler advance from the CA-04 primary election?No won
- Will Laurie MacKenzie advance from the CA-04 primary election?No won
- Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election?No won
- Will Sharon Brown advance from the CA-04 primary election?No won
- Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.