Token Launches · resolved market
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee831769173f13d3cda40157d9191ea446f271b7dccc3f6af98f9509bfff049f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x483c…0bf0backed No | 34c | 2,280$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +127%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 16c | 1,133$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…afbbbacked Yes | 11c | 909.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked No | 62c | 772.39$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.07 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked No | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 6c | 470.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 415$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a0…0036backed Yes | 48c | 305.3$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 70c | 293.57$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…cf99backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…6cdabacked No | 33c | 151$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…9629backed No | 32c | 130.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 42c | 103.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 29c | 103.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…1131backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…01f5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…ec5bbacked Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…d477backed Yes | 69c | 98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…7837backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eca…7f95backed Yes | 65c | 74.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38bf…1f82backed No | 36c | 73.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.42per pick | 49cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…e2acbacked Yes | 26c | 69.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd0…9815backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…741dbacked Yes | 63c | 56.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed No | 33c | 53.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…28c0backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…bd19backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 48.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 32c | 42.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 67c | 20.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.