Token Launches · resolved market
Citrea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd54f87d184b654f88fb983124c460ee6f53e3967f06bb0488ca0243023025a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 26c | 1,101$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.23 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked No | 76c | 812.26$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.26 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…678ebacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…2d18backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 252.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…7837backed Yes | 26c | 193.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 175$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 73c | 122.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…ed6ebacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…cf99backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…1accbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38bf…1f82backed No | 74c | 81.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.42per pick | 49cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2eca…7f95backed Yes | 32c | 43.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…de7abacked No | 72c | 40.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…118bbacked No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Citrea FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.