Token Launches · resolved market
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3e8924ed05394c0d3007b9e9ed9cbbf6ad8aba74fa84b2c4d74d6e3133e674b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked No | 28c | 2,016$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 44c | 1,950$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.15 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed Yes | 53c | 1,738$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.5 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,199$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,165$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…851abacked No | 32c | 1,113$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…234abacked Yes | 78c | 1,068$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…51a3backed Yes | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 15c | 934.57$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.38 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 2c | 887.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 60c | 607.94$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.35 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…678ebacked Yes | 61c | 563.51$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…909abacked No | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 57c | 406.59$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.76 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 49c | 388.47$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 6c | 285.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 59c | 275.61$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed No | 66c | 269.66$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 12c | 268.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 247.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Yes | 54c | 189.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 8c | 172.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…afbbbacked Yes | 55c | 169.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…af1abacked No | 31c | 160$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 7c | 158.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…2a03backed No | 35c | 152.41$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…7ca4backed Yes | 56c | 143.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 31c | 143.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…439ebacked Yes | 48c | 130.97$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…3987backed Yes | 70c | 122.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b32…90bdbacked Yes | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed Yes | 67c | 111.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…cf99backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd2…f9f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…01f5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…ec5bbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…abb5backed No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 31c | 93.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 86.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa589…aa13backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…a6e8backed No | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38bf…1f82backed No | 17c | 65.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.42per pick | 49cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 63.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…a061backed No | 31c | 62.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yes | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +306.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…45efbacked No | 18c | 56.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ad93backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…ed6ebacked No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked Yes | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f3…06c1backed Yes | 72c | 40.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…1791backed Yes | 46c | 34.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…6b36backed No | 50c | 31.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…7153backed No | 46c | 30.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…5410backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 50c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 79c | 19.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 62c | 17.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch?Yes won
- Citrea FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
- Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.