IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90441858ba74e39c0dd89e4e8a80bac2457a0c65332b6cb3efcf69395b988892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked No | 50c | 3,705$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,830$1,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 60c | 1,740$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 45c | 1,160$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 50c | 497.98$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.99 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 50c | 495.5$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…f5a6backed Yes | 40c | 418.71$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed Yes | 45c | 299.72$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0840…9746backed Yes | 70c | 210.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 134.19$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 129$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…9230backed Yes | 42c | 118.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f62…d989backed Yes | 35c | 114.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08d…d8b9backed No | 48c | 103.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 100.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed Yes | 40c | 87.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…362ebacked No | 65c | 76.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…39d0backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 65.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked No | 79c | 63.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…0693backed Yes | 40c | 61.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 57c | 54.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 50.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 48.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 48c | 32.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 26.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…c0b2backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Yes | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 65c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?this page
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of July?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of July?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of July?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of July?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.