Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46f6e9416701a14027d634794137ce01738c473a8aa84c0849cd0bdb998b61ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaab…8e6cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,472$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,774$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 4c | 7,990$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…33afbacked Yes | 3c | 4,032$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…2fcabacked Yes | 4c | 2,616$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 2,589$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe844…fe1abacked Yes | 3c | 1,988$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,930$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 2c | 1,930$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,741$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 2c | 1,587$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,332$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,192$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…1205backed Yes | 5c | 1,176$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…6394backed Yes | 3c | 1,001$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7b…1476backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8590…1e13backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…13e4backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 3c | 977.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 3c | 900.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb96f…0222backed Yes | 4c | 854.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c1…73b5backed Yes | 6c | 830.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 4c | 723.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 590.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 7c | 564.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 557.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…fed8backed Yes | 5c | 540$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…70dcbacked Yes | 3c | 524.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 4c | 516.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 459.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…a832backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 5c | 399.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…f6cabacked Yes | 9c | 388.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 342.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 341.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked Yes | 3c | 333.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 6c | 328.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802c…8da1backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.