AI · resolved market
GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x997c9af4932c7521747872cc47ff48f8b25de77e4119c223abd39a9dcb1995d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce49…2d84backed Yes | 9c | 5,988$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6222…ee97backed Yes | 8c | 4,265$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 76c | 1,840$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.18 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…bca8backed Yes | 6c | 1,655$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…daf2backed Yes | 64c | 1,405$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9738…ed21backed Yes | 12c | 1,396$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,332$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 1,317$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 6c | 1,300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 22c | 1,156$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.02 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…e639backed Yes | 3c | 1,099$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ff…72a4backed Yes | 6c | 922.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 875$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 6c | 800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 799.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 12c | 767.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 732.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 729.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6a…62e1backed Yes | 4c | 621.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 602.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 5c | 546.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked Yes | 18c | 546.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee23…813dbacked Yes | 5c | 532.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked Yes | 8c | 514.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…bcb3backed Yes | 7c | 434.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 7c | 430.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21c…99dcbacked Yes | 5c | 429.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…0821backed Yes | 3c | 425.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 390.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…db62backed Yes | 6c | 372.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a15…25d3backed Yes | 6c | 344.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 328.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 328.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb87…3636backed No | 77c | 244$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 4c | 243.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 7c | 225$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0c…be60backed Yes | 29c | 215.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f9…ebb3backed Yes | 10c | 205.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…c792backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 5c | 194.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…41a3backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked Yes | 17c | 160.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 26c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 13c | 87.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 20c | 68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 51.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 32c | 31.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by February 21, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.