AI · resolved market
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d9915b0dda64a0258235de38b52950ea4056042851da1126aeb75a4d30f69d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 10c | 3,072$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.61 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked No | 18c | 2,525$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 13c | 2,451$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.86 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…2bc2backed No | 13c | 2,169$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…fa82backed No | 9c | 1,508$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab5…ba4abacked No | 13c | 1,294$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef8c…8550backed No | 4c | 542.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 10c | 377.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 17c | 302$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…ca48backed No | 10c | 301$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 9c | 269.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 11c | 251.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…069abacked No | 8c | 249.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 5c | 243.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 10c | 237.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed No | 15c | 233.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…3d1abacked No | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 15c | 139.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 135.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 134.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…6650backed No | 23c | 130.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 10c | 97.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed No | 19c | 93.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…1cafbacked Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b4…8fd1backed Yes | 79c | 70.09$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 32.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by February 21, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.3 released by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.