TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Egypt/Jordan agree to take 100k+ Gazan refugees before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$355,652
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$378,981

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $355,652 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes6c16,957$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.4214129.8%42 W · 99 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97c…03f4backed Yes6c16,890$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.341513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes2c10,677$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.62213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes2c9,453$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2712245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes14c9,043$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.957741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a3…eb9cbacked Yes8c8,639$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes4c7,863$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.42296.9%2 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes5c5,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.2816743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes3c4,983$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1747334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes8c4,622$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Yes9c4,455$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b2…2c66backed Yes7c4,079$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes6c3,560$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.92123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-45%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb566…978ebacked Yes6c3,494$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.621656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ea…aef5backed Yes11c3,307$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.723237.5%12 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes6c3,100$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes3c3,011$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.37296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-72.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes1c3,003$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes14c2,934$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.43339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9b9…525abacked Yes8c2,698$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.61533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked Yes9c2,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46a…27ebbacked Yes6c2,448$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.871266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+95.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c2,313$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.89567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c33cbacked Yes5c2,275$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes13c2,175$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.131414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed Yes9c2,090$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e16…84d7backed Yes6c1,992$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.161631.3%5 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68bc…4bb1backed Yes17c1,891$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes10c1,828$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.2451138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes14c1,709$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x717e…6498backed Yes17c1,635$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.553716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ba…dbc7backed Yes12c1,632$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6107…6d97backed No75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes13c1,165$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.466942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes10c1,158$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bf…f954backed Yes9c1,155$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes10c1,109$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…6654backed Yes9c1,094$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd222…fbf6backed Yes18c1,093$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No78c1,000$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.43458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes14c859.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.927838.5%30 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92a3…f796backed Yes6c833.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes8c832.66$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.163619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes11c761.22$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes6c699.87$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c685.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42ea…0451backed Yes5c635.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes9c608$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.434619.6%9 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes15c599.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a4…c862backed Yes17c562.85$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes18c557.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.46832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8196…ab69backed Yes5c504.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.624845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed Yes20c501.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd6…39b0backed Yes15c499.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes9c497.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.783053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No76c465.39$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0512138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x175c…1ee0backed Yes3c465.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54f4…b66bbacked Yes22c450.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes4c450$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3974…d26fbacked Yes9c449.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba03…f17abacked Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3cb…61dabacked Yes6c407.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2a…fc3abacked Yes13c402.46$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3290%0 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5070…e12abacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes9c400$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352544%11 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes11c350$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9048…6fddbacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes5c320$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3123525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes5c312.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe6a…8e55backed Yes12c310.42$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5404…39cfbacked Yes24c306.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3824234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d01…b284backed Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7931…020abacked Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe762…f8b7backed Yes3c296.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa78…8af1backed Yes4c295$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.542927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes4c280$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc826…e03cbacked Yes15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x055c…e4adbacked Yes19c258.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No21c254.3$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.49535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdf0b…f3e3backed No80c250.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7007…00aabacked Yes12c249.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes22c229.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.298515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe732…ced9backed Yes8c225$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x620d…c7f3backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb093…c66fbacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8395…68d0backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6719…744dbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bb…d19dbacked Yes17c194.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf09…ac98backed Yes16c192.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes13c189.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.241931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c83…9015backed Yes13c188.24$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes9c175$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5647.8%5 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked Yes16c171.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663b…a9c5backed Yes12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes14c166.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes13c164.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.792030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae7…9036backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…4f2bbacked Yes13c153.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.