Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed emergency rate cut in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8957959755fd8f47815d16c9fd46d6b6fce37cda383c2cf8f881ea3778068ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $432,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $367,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $432,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e06…15d5backed Yes | 3c | 47,352$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 27,298$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 25,685$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.02 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 15,939$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 0c | 15,597$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ff…ee0fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e41…cf4dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a43…f2f6backed Yes | 4c | 8,543$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 0c | 7,502$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…2e62backed Yes | 1c | 7,102$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,660$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0c…c823backed Yes | 3c | 5,400$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 2c | 5,164$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c74…073ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,158$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 1c | 5,135$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Yes | 4c | 4,957$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +108%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 2c | 4,418$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…db48backed Yes | 3c | 4,360$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…a495backed Yes | 5c | 3,459$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…aa20backed Yes | 2c | 3,100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba2…eaa7backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6663…0488backed Yes | 14c | 2,565$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,404$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,730$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…fdf3backed Yes | 1c | 1,708$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…a9edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 4c | 1,156$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Yes | 5c | 1,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…a38cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,066$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…4417backed Yes | 3c | 1,004$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…6b3fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1f…c4eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…58b5backed Yes | 2c | 999.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…1d6cbacked Yes | 3c | 925.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 2c | 896.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…1eacbacked Yes | 12c | 874.64$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda87…3414backed Yes | 3c | 858.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Yes | 3c | 799.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Yes | 12c | 774.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…7b16backed Yes | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 5c | 535.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…77f7backed Yes | 4c | 475.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6645…5650backed Yes | 3c | 470.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc4…1c49backed Yes | 4c | 460.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 3c | 393.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…e84bbacked Yes | 19c | 314.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 4c | 249.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 6c | 221.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…73f1backed Yes | 5c | 213.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…58cebacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186f…40c3backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…52b9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7276…2347backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…0b71backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.