AI · resolved market
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d6a3a8470ef464a5be2afe6872b97a22f5935f60c0303e0365d6a7e96e5605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 4c | 8,424$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.77 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…00e6backed No | 3c | 3,049$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,342$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 1c | 756.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 6c | 534.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed86…6ee1backed No | 19c | 530.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 3c | 438.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b4…6709backed No | 13c | 405.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed No | 5c | 349.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…6fb1backed No | 15c | 309.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…534fbacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 196.86$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 10c | 191.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…8eabbacked No | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 17c | 189$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 16c | 187.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 166.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 25c | 162.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a2…5521backed No | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 13c | 131.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked No | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 13c | 127.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…eecabacked No | 34c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…e760backed No | 19c | 93.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 12c | 87.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 14c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fd…f3a5backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 44c | 64.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…04e0backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d6…0851backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc434…7003backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 31cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 69c | 28.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…8c81backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…229abacked Yes | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.