Middle East · resolved market
Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc8b339c17f9ad2343cbf3afdb1e73a77de22d22e3a57c3bb23f4d24fe3852ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 33c | 13,251$4,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,433.45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 0c | 8,204$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,922$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 8c | 6,377$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.9 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,913$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.8 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,630$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x882d…7b41backed Yes | 8c | 3,670$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed No | 68c | 3,433$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.87 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 3,128$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.02 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,783$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 2,481$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.93 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…28a6backed Yes | 7c | 2,166$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 2,092$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.17 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…2697backed Yes | 11c | 1,882$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…a970backed Yes | 7c | 1,783$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,490$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 1,210$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 23c | 1,181$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.04 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a16…2ec4backed Yes | 2c | 1,123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fe…e7debacked Yes | 6c | 1,117$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 9c | 1,075$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 11c | 1,024$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 23c | 1,024$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.38 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…5638backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 981.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 899.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 7c | 755.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 737.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 684.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 5c | 555.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 32c | 554.32$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.17 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 8c | 520.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 6c | 469$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 9c | 404.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 387.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 8c | 335.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b26…9bc4backed Yes | 8c | 328$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 61c | 320$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd87d…52f9backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 6c | 204.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…bf81backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…4455backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 18c | 168.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 149.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…fee1backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…73adbacked Yes | 12c | 113.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…08a3backed Yes | 31c | 101.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 25c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef4…759abacked Yes | 29c | 68.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +222.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.