Middle East · resolved market
Netanyahu out before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd6e9462edff12429df58434e93dbb7ff92739dae3f815484afd16a263665ef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb491…e015backed Yes | 1c | 19,660$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 8c | 5,991$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.69 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 6c | 5,483$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.17 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,999$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da7…ba93backed Yes | 10c | 4,953$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.86 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 6c | 4,946$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 0c | 3,570$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 14c | 3,329$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 3,190$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 7c | 2,899$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…8c34backed Yes | 14c | 2,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…195bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,106$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…591abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,947$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 1,850$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,754$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.32 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,604$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…d32ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,528$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.89 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,381$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 13c | 1,284$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6556…db73backed Yes | 4c | 1,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…85abbacked Yes | 6c | 1,193$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a8…0261backed Yes | 4c | 1,115$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3813…a558backed Yes | 8c | 1,101$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 9c | 1,050$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,032$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…6fddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,029$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…28d5backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…dd1ebacked Yes | 9c | 950.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes | 2c | 804.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 705.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 617.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked No | 78c | 600.55$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 485.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 12c | 457.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 8c | 304$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…d147backed Yes | 17c | 295.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb24e…a2e5backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 235.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 6c | 215.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…7831backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 8c | 185$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c8…c77fbacked Yes | 13c | 181.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…12f1backed Yes | 10c | 158.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6a…8e55backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2e…0c6abacked Yes | 19c | 138.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 16c | 136.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…6de1backed Yes | 18c | 136.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…44debacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd61…0616backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 16c | 116.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 13c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…7c60backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…64f4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…1de1backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 91.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…ad30backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 73c | 50.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 76c | 49.27$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…dc54backed Yes | 24c | 49.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb566…978ebacked No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.