Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06fa3bc0c4b9a628307b71739c1738c174148e5d26fbbdbfd6f7ee1e09452c59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90d2…4b5ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69cf…e75cbacked Yes | 5c | 5,353$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 2,826$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.91 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 18c | 2,085$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,984$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 28c | 1,920$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.41 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 79c | 1,446$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.81 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 18c | 1,335$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.09 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 4c | 1,150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 1,132$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.37 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 14c | 1,053$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0ef5backed Yes | 3c | 907.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 907.62$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.69 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…9becbacked Yes | 5c | 845$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…b7e6backed No | 70c | 842.64$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 13c | 684.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 20c | 649.97$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.02 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 80c | 644.89$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 599.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 467$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd058…f7f7backed Yes | 5c | 421$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 417.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 408.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 14c | 399.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…e30ebacked Yes | 5c | 392$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2385…ef8cbacked Yes | 5c | 358$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 7c | 346.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fb…e73abacked Yes | 19c | 310.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…c57fbacked No | 73c | 293.65$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 72c | 282$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -7.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…2b2cbacked Yes | 6c | 269.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…063dbacked Yes | 5c | 266$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976b…f936backed Yes | 5c | 227$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…cad7backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…c304backed Yes | 5c | 206$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 7c | 200.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 192.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 177.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 21c | 161.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 143.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0667backed No | 65c | 129.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…d07cbacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc099…2ea5backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c1…3152backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 31c | 84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…525abacked Yes | 39c | 82.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 81.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 25c | 80.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 71c | 79.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 67c | 78.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 22c | 61.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…9f8abacked Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…eb2abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…2360backed No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.