Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel annex Syrian territory before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04cba1073961e050049af6ef4b30bdc16b5983c8b955aedf00a063dd9b0ab470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $132,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 10c | 9,346$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.13 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,577$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 10c | 5,668$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.82 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…12f8backed Yes | 13c | 5,141$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 4c | 2,810$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 2,104$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…2d93backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -76%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 10c | 1,841$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 10c | 1,720$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 1,652$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f8…f705backed Yes | 11c | 1,600$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,450$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes | 11c | 1,069$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…bf57backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…fd07backed Yes | 5c | 987.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 8c | 973.07$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 10c | 947.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…adf8backed Yes | 1c | 912.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 675.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 2c | 642$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…fc3abacked Yes | 11c | 503.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9905…1bc4backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…da44backed Yes | 5c | 445.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae21…66cbbacked Yes | 9c | 305.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895e…d18dbacked Yes | 9c | 260$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…4831backed Yes | 14c | 240$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 5c | 233.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f58…f06fbacked Yes | 5c | 214.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 5c | 213.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…49acbacked Yes | 10c | 207.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…7831backed Yes | 6c | 199.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 183.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 182$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 11c | 170.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 10c | 162.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd13a…d1a2backed Yes | 10c | 132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…507bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes | 14c | 83.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…794abacked Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.