Us Politics · resolved market
Will Iranian officials visit the White House before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28722d0854648fe3fb6c45ea3d8b41589465cc31fd9f930ac9ac4f8b8a867948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b0b…3a52backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 1,166$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 18c | 1,101$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…09b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,018$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 12c | 988.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed Yes | 2c | 802.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c3…c0eebacked Yes | 6c | 695.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 8c | 673.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 10c | 598.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 510.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…8422backed Yes | 23c | 434.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +484.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 5c | 417.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 349.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 11c | 283.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…0650backed Yes | 19c | 260.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 21c | 238.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abb…0045backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 192.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…78f7backed Yes | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04af…06d7backed Yes | 12c | 169.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…1b0bbacked Yes | 20c | 125.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 9c | 123.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 183 | 22.4%41 W · 142 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 61c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.