Ukraine · resolved market
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2820f9e0e7fac7f3cc909bccdd212c6f3de818a6b0e4ca401c24beba941a2249
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,143,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,080,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,143,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc449…2b31backed Yes | 1c | 297,707$4,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,165.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…a100backed Yes | 2c | 172,776$3,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,037.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 134,517$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.09 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 23,407$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 21,500$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 1c | 12,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dff…c07ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,679$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a7…89cbbacked Yes | 3c | 5,024$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 8c | 4,719$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.47 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 4,713$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…a0d0backed Yes | 0c | 3,804$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd53…87c0backed Yes | 10c | 3,678$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…e21bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,475$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f49…152dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,335$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3755…4f02backed Yes | 1c | 2,508$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…ae39backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa1…3240backed Yes | 1c | 2,482$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…722bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,466$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…e0f1backed Yes | 0c | 2,456$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…7f1abacked Yes | 1c | 2,378$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…ce5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,267$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…a873backed Yes | 0c | 2,250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60c8…3c9cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,156$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…9858backed Yes | 1c | 2,113$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 2c | 2,075$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…3124backed Yes | 0c | 2,031$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5a…6ca4backed Yes | 1c | 1,967$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 9c | 1,909$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…1be3backed Yes | 1c | 1,834$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 1c | 1,692$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…f93fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,655$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfead…f7bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,551$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ba…a2d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,510$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e90…bd93backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 1,341$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0041backed Yes | 1c | 1,326$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2d…46abbacked Yes | 7c | 1,233$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ff…040bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,189$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…4b80backed Yes | 1c | 1,171$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f9…9aefbacked Yes | 1c | 1,168$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 10c | 1,105$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.01 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 10c | 1,097$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 8c | 1,056$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 24cpaid | -71%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8952…2d93backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 976.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x894f…1599backed Yes | 11c | 936.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 902.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 6c | 881$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 9c | 851$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 4c | 795$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 4c | 794.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…6f68backed Yes | 7c | 703.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…5824backed Yes | 32c | 689.76$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.84 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe9…d9e3backed Yes | 6c | 600.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 579.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…803bbacked Yes | 10c | 551.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…ad41backed Yes | 2c | 539.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 7c | 514.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x107f…fe60backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…b5bebacked Yes | 8c | 487.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 2c | 450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…8399backed Yes | 6c | 430.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 70c | 398.28$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.65 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…0706backed Yes | 5c | 378.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed Yes | 22c | 333$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2951…8f9fbacked Yes | 13c | 261.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +307.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 16c | 249.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…d48dbacked Yes | 9c | 219.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebef…35e7backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 18c | 193.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +230.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…3808backed Yes | 13c | 182.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 12c | 180$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55df…7454backed Yes | 9c | 151.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…b84bbacked Yes | 9c | 142.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…baa3backed Yes | 16c | 125.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.