Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 22-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa271f5a1f5e4a9df4a379da126a72bc91fe860202ed560afd75f33ed4e98b28e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 40c | 3,765$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,277.73 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 27c | 3,499$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.54 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 30c | 2,948$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,076.07 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 38c | 2,431$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.89 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ee…9311backed Yes | 58c | 1,937$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…76b7backed Yes | 74c | 1,577$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 5c | 1,483$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed No | 62c | 1,290$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.46 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,200$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 49c | 1,198$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.07 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…4007backed Yes | 62c | 1,077$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 30c | 1,069$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 8c | 1,040$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…c356backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 15c | 999.97$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 970.28$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 22c | 763.49$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked No | 2c | 705.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed No | 4c | 546.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 29c | 516.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.22 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 462.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.14 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb801…9c97backed Yes | 69c | 456.48$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 33c | 440.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.45 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 32c | 439.89$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.76 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 32c | 427.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 34c | 418.91$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…a45bbacked Yes | 71c | 404.55$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe5…66c2backed Yes | 25c | 315.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ceb…4790backed No | 42c | 299.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…5055backed Yes | 63c | 264.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked Yes | 22c | 227.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 65c | 220.07$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 60c | 218.39$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 38c | 210.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 45c | 203.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…f083backed Yes | 62c | 193.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 60c | 185.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3f…d2e7backed Yes | 70c | 170.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed Yes | 39c | 169.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 18c | 159$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 62c | 156.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 77c | 155.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…edc2backed Yes | 58c | 147.47$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…6bf6backed Yes | 36c | 138.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 25c | 117.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 17c | 109.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked No | 27c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 78c | 102.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…a25ebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…0f49backed Yes | 37c | 99.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 37c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 45c | 84.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 26c | 73.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…50fabacked No | 76c | 70.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9e42backed Yes | 74c | 66.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828d…2e40backed Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 34c | 65.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…b683backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…3041backed No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…b14dbacked Yes | 60c | 60.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa30a…3f61backed Yes | 50c | 60.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7e…54ddbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad5…de1abacked Yes | 64c | 57.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65fd…51c7backed Yes | 60c | 51.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 79c | 49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…cc82backed Yes | 55c | 36.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 70c | 33.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes | 75c | 33.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5d…1684backed Yes | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 30.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fc99backed No | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…6ff0backed No | 58c | 26.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes | 73c | 22.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…84fcbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ce…94aabacked Yes | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273b…e2b0backed Yes | 74c | 19.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b1d4backed Yes | 65c | 18.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 60c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 22-29?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Trump tweet 5-9 times Nov 22-29?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 22-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.