NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Cavaliers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c75227c365e605b6723ee3937dd875381aa530b0bae5dcbe35e674388c00ed1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Raptors, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5de8…cfb9backed Raptors | 0c | 12,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Raptors | 7c | 8,088$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.7 | 118 | 34.7%41 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Raptors | 7c | 6,633$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.27 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Raptors | 13c | 5,913$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.68 | 1,164 | 49.6%577 W · 587 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Raptors | 11c | 5,183$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.28 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Raptors | 10c | 5,174$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.43 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Raptors | 4c | 5,008$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.55 | 166 | 17.5%29 W · 137 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Raptors | 10c | 4,378$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.1 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raptors | 15c | 4,216$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.5 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Raptors | 13c | 3,628$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.5 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Raptors | 13c | 2,818$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.31 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Raptors | 2c | 2,179$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…677fbacked Raptors | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8df…32b4backed Raptors | 3c | 2,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…4f21backed Raptors | 9c | 1,830$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576b…7336backed Raptors | 13c | 1,602$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.31 | 183 | 16.9%31 W · 152 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Raptors | 18c | 1,243$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.34 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Raptors | 6c | 1,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 238 | 35.7%85 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…acb2backed Raptors | 6c | 1,160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…4eacbacked Raptors | 3c | 1,113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Raptors | 15c | 1,042$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Raptors | 6c | 1,021$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 84 | 39.3%33 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 13c | 1,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Raptors | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…b3c5backed Raptors | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Raptors | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Raptors | 8c | 999.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Raptors | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…3e7ebacked Raptors | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors | 8c | 671.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Raptors | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe475…2e6fbacked Raptors | 3c | 623.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Raptors | 7c | 601.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83da…41f7backed Raptors | 15c | 513.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…8516backed Raptors | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 34.8%62 W · 116 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…1f16backed Raptors | 11c | 454.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…500fbacked Raptors | 9c | 408.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Raptors | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a4…eeaabacked Raptors | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…8e02backed Raptors | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…c275backed Raptors | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…f141backed Raptors | 8c | 268.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 57cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Raptors | 9c | 252.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 152 | 34.9%53 W · 99 L | -11.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…e9c0backed Raptors | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Raptors | 16c | 225$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Raptors | 10c | 220.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79d…5489backed Raptors | 16c | 206.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Raptors | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6981…8ac5backed Raptors | 11c | 161.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked Raptors | 14c | 139.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Raptors | 9c | 134.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 216 | 5.6%12 W · 204 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked Raptors | 8c | 132.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1e…cee2backed Raptors | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a7…2261backed Raptors | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…5977backed Raptors | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Raptors | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 378 | 31.2%118 W · 260 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…0315backed Raptors | 15c | 100.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.43per pick | 52cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Cavaliers | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…cd66backed Raptors | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902c…50dcbacked Raptors | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…b372backed Raptors | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc2…758bbacked Raptors | 15c | 96.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Raptors | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead7…efedbacked Raptors | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…46b3backed Raptors | 15c | 76.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.