NFL · resolved market
Bengals extend Ja'Marr Chase before regular season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73707019749ba16944068397d98f77feaacad9af895f4f4b666db0f9c77fff3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 79c | 4,020$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.89 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 58c | 3,144$1,834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.46 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 80c | 2,545$2,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.68 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…5692backed No | 15c | 1,662$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 46c | 1,443$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.93 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…bbb7backed No | 20c | 1,420$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefcc…1444backed No | 26c | 1,041$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…0cf4backed No | 35c | 821.38$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1687…cfdcbacked No | 24c | 800$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 62c | 793.65$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 58c | 645.57$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.7 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed No | 29c | 340$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 68c | 327.86$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.06 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 67c | 318.72$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd79d…5489backed No | 62c | 227.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed No | 62c | 197$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 197$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…5cedbacked No | 31c | 194.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…57a9backed No | 36c | 159.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 68c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 45c | 125$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 72c | 122.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 54c | 116.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.13 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed No | 19c | 104.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…07c8backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 20c | 96.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yes | 57c | 87.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 207 | 58%120 W · 87 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed No | 25c | 80.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 59c | 69.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5096…9198backed No | 36c | 58.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…e69cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff4…64d7backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 33c | 40.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +122%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 76c | 22.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 221 | 42.1%93 W · 128 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2e…8b5dbacked Yes | 80c | 17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.