MLB · resolved market
Will the New York Mets win the National League?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d3924a688d2378aad57b98cb613b9e1878d35d272a594474834472f592ffd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Yes | 19c | 4,176$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,453$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 79c | 2,646$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.82 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 39c | 1,882$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.36 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 12c | 1,506$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.82 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4750backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…a8e0backed No | 64c | 1,000$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.81 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…ec0bbacked Yes | 16c | 890$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…9efcbacked Yes | 39c | 633.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Yes | 37c | 454.46$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked Yes | 10c | 420$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 293.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…3d52backed Yes | 39c | 257$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…b428backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 62c | 204.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 63c | 184.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…8cb4backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 36c | 136.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79d…5489backed Yes | 38c | 134.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c3…484cbacked Yes | 29c | 114.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…2ce5backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…9880backed Yes | 36c | 91.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd5…b4bbbacked Yes | 38c | 87.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 16c | 85.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…f57ebacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5e…846ebacked Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +283.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 24c | 66.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 18c | 64.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked Yes | 35c | 56.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8149…29bebacked Yes | 39c | 42.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f98…9426backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…682bbacked Yes | 37c | 31.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New York Mets win the National League?this page
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the National League?Yes won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the National League?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the National League?No won
- Will the San Diego Padres win the National League?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.