UFC · resolved market
UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblett
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcba1ad83f8b79baa7fb2b91a9e9a9a63e8f50e6ca21241c28f28b7ea9c9c40be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pimblettof Green, Pimblett
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Green | 48c | 1,282$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.13 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Pimblett | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Green | 50c | 931.17$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.59 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…857abacked Pimblett | 57c | 508.27$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Green | 49c | 318.09$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…fdaabacked Pimblett | 51c | 312.82$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Pimblett | 50c | 308.61$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed Green | 47c | 281.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Green | 46c | 253.28$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Green | 40c | 251.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Green | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Pimblett | 49c | 242.37$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…c49bbacked Green | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1285…6a2fbacked Pimblett | 50c | 207.54$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Pimblett | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ab…30f3backed Pimblett | 50c | 133.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Pimblett | 46c | 124.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Pimblett | 52c | 121.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…803ebacked Pimblett | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…1c14backed Pimblett | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Green | 53c | 96.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…28a0backed Green | 54c | 91.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Green | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…5f3ebacked Pimblett | 56c | 87.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Pimblett | 78c | 80.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…8251backed Pimblett | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad79…7abbbacked Green | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…04cabacked Pimblett | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…498dbacked Pimblett | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…64b1backed Pimblett | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb33a…4d89backed Pimblett | 55c | 54.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Pimblett | 50c | 50.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…f564backed Pimblett | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Pimblett | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79d…5489backed Pimblett | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…85d9backed Pimblett | 52c | 48.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c835backed Pimblett | 55c | 45.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…4c5dbacked Pimblett | 52c | 43.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…0839backed Pimblett | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…58eebacked Pimblett | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…3f7abacked Pimblett | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…a096backed Pimblett | 52c | 38.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b4…909ebacked Pimblett | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Green | 49c | 37.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Green | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Green | 47c | 36.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…e590backed Pimblett | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…39d9backed Pimblett | 50c | 33.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed Pimblett | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…5a6cbacked Green | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…6d5abacked Green | 53c | 25.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…6e8ebacked Pimblett | 51c | 25.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…b745backed Pimblett | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy Pimblettthis page
- UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga ChikadzeAllen won
- UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal MuhammadMuhammad won
- UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel KapeMokaev won
- UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis BlaydesAspinall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.