UFC · resolved market
UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4021abf3f7792c8c11d9c4359bedcbe2bd5ec8e8a401fb601157bc5a00b38487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aspinallof Aspinall, Blaydes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0003…857abacked Aspinall | 75c | 3,977$2,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Blaydes | 21c | 3,028$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.67 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ef…b1ddbacked Blaydes | 25c | 2,961$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Blaydes | 21c | 1,685$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Aspinall | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Blaydes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…96debacked Aspinall | 79c | 761.14$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Aspinall | 74c | 603.13$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.94 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Blaydes | 29c | 525.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Blaydes | 28c | 518.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Aspinall | 73c | 448.96$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.02 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…6333backed Blaydes | 21c | 264.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…043fbacked Aspinall | 79c | 235.05$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Aspinall | 76c | 215$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6694…b08bbacked Blaydes | 29c | 175.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50e…773ebacked Blaydes | 25c | 162.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…f250backed Aspinall | 79c | 133.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…36a0backed Aspinall | 79c | 127.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…c835backed Aspinall | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…773fbacked Aspinall | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -5.5wins | -0.39per pick | 60cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…64b1backed Blaydes | 25c | 121.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Blaydes | 21c | 116.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed Aspinall | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…6d5abacked Aspinall | 79c | 70.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Blaydes | 20c | 69.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Aspinall | 77c | 64.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…df42backed Aspinall | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…28a0backed Aspinall | 79c | 63.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Aspinall | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5402…3bd1backed Blaydes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…58eebacked Aspinall | 80c | 55.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308c…6bc0backed Aspinall | 80c | 54.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…f564backed Aspinall | 79c | 52.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Aspinall | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…ffa2backed Aspinall | 80c | 49.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120a…6456backed Aspinall | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c87…65aebacked Aspinall | 80c | 49.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7f…5c3cbacked Blaydes | 25c | 47.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Aspinall | 75c | 47.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2623…f9d7backed Aspinall | 80c | 46.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…25b8backed Aspinall | 80c | 43.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…16cfbacked Aspinall | 79c | 43.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…e590backed Blaydes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c5d7backed Aspinall | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…af29backed Aspinall | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d3…1042backed Aspinall | 80c | 34.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…7041backed Aspinall | 79c | 32.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Aspinall | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…04cabacked Aspinall | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…4a88backed Aspinall | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…a13dbacked Aspinall | 79c | 21.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…3f7abacked Aspinall | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…6cbfbacked Aspinall | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Aspinall | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8919…3a7ebacked Aspinall | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…8f11backed Aspinall | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b0…9131backed Aspinall | 80c | 13.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x175d…fc7abacked Aspinall | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…f2fabacked Aspinall | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…4ed1backed Aspinall | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydesthis page
- UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga ChikadzeAllen won
- UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
- UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal MuhammadMuhammad won
- UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel KapeMokaev won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.