UFC · resolved market
UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd697ba588e0be2e4fbc6292b3f4b7d0df7db04de73edb53843602620a4cc4bc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muhammadof Edwards, Muhammad
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Muhammad | 27c | 1,202$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.39 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Muhammad | 29c | 1,062$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.62 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Muhammad | 27c | 869.37$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Edwards | 73c | 813.51$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed Muhammad | 32c | 500$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Edwards | 69c | 499.95$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.97 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Muhammad | 37c | 402.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.63 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f35…eb5ebacked Muhammad | 30c | 377.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked Edwards | 74c | 345.32$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a3…c49bbacked Muhammad | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Edwards | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…96debacked Muhammad | 34c | 295.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Edwards | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Muhammad | 66c | 280.08$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…63d5backed Edwards | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074b…a249backed Edwards | 72c | 276.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0003…857abacked Edwards | 60c | 240.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Muhammad | 60c | 215.67$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.27 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Muhammad | 27c | 214.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.78 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed Edwards | 69c | 214.29$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…cee7backed Muhammad | 31c | 183.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…e006backed Edwards | 71c | 154.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ee…caa4backed Edwards | 66c | 151.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Edwards | 67c | 151$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…24dcbacked Muhammad | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18b…3aedbacked Edwards | 69c | 149.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…521abacked Edwards | 71c | 147.58$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…773fbacked Edwards | 74c | 134.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -5.5wins | -0.39per pick | 60cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Edwards | 69c | 123.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Edwards | 62c | 121.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Edwards | 71c | 113.8$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Muhammad | 24c | 103.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6532…e7c1backed Edwards | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c5d7backed Muhammad | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…713ebacked Edwards | 69c | 93.57$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…f564backed Edwards | 72c | 92.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…60d8backed Muhammad | 34c | 88.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Muhammad | 30c | 85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed Muhammad | 30c | 82.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…ab4ebacked Muhammad | 31c | 81.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Muhammad | 45c | 80.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…a096backed Muhammad | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Edwards | 68c | 79.05$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Edwards | 66c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…e590backed Muhammad | 31c | 71.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Muhammad | 31c | 70.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…f4abbacked Edwards | 71c | 70.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Edwards | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Edwards | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…63c8backed Muhammad | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…df42backed Edwards | 72c | 69.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…04cabacked Edwards | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…1c14backed Edwards | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7ccabacked Edwards | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…8165backed Muhammad | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…85d9backed Muhammad | 60c | 63.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Edwards | 67c | 60.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…4a88backed Edwards | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b4…909ebacked Edwards | 71c | 52.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…58eebacked Edwards | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…d5b9backed Edwards | 74c | 47.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…942abacked Edwards | 72c | 47.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c4…032bbacked Edwards | 72c | 45.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd874…a314backed Edwards | 72c | 44.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…580cbacked Edwards | 72c | 43.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…6333backed Edwards | 67c | 43.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…6d28backed Edwards | 72c | 42.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…5d01backed Edwards | 73c | 41.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…d44cbacked Edwards | 72c | 39.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…b27cbacked Edwards | 72c | 38.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…b61dbacked Edwards | 72c | 36.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a2…4ee5backed Edwards | 72c | 34.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Edwards | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Muhammad | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…49a4backed Edwards | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4803…d6d9backed Edwards | 73c | 28.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd539…0ec3backed Edwards | 72c | 28.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Edwards | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d5…137abacked Edwards | 73c | 26.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4d7ebacked Edwards | 72c | 26.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x318f…87b5backed Edwards | 73c | 24.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…b7b1backed Edwards | 74c | 22.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57f…2400backed Edwards | 71c | 21.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…fdcebacked Edwards | 73c | 21.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…aed5backed Edwards | 70c | 21.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Edwards | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97b0…9131backed Edwards | 72c | 18.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…2df9backed Edwards | 73c | 18.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…3942backed Edwards | 72c | 18.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…2ed5backed Edwards | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb4…6cbfbacked Edwards | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…e064backed Edwards | 74c | 15.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…8f11backed Edwards | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…f2d5backed Edwards | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammadthis page
- UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga ChikadzeAllen won
- UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
- UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel KapeMokaev won
- UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis BlaydesAspinall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.