UFC · resolved market
UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kape
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddbb3de65c7dbe1603eb5b7784c9b884ce2a56791b7844b08b71d0bed13cf484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mokaevof Mokaev, Kape
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Kape | 39c | 869.52$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…c932backed Mokaev | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…28a0backed Mokaev | 61c | 325.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Kape | 40c | 321.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Mokaev | 68c | 235$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…165cbacked Kape | 32c | 173.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…498dbacked Mokaev | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb33a…4d89backed Mokaev | 60c | 93.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x715f…a096backed Mokaev | 68c | 87.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Kape | 39c | 78.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Kape | 37c | 66.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Kape | 40c | 61.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e38…a1f1backed Kape | 36c | 42.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Kape | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Kape | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…85d9backed Mokaev | 68c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Mokaev | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…42dbbacked Mokaev | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…5a6cbacked Mokaev | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…fbfdbacked Kape | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Mokaev | 62c | 21.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel Kapethis page
- UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga ChikadzeAllen won
- UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
- UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal MuhammadMuhammad won
- UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis BlaydesAspinall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.