UFC · resolved market
UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33928261561c90d586b12f24634e81ab7369c0d2e52284cd5777854c1c4f1ad1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allenof Allen, Chikadze
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9716…378abacked Chikadze | 31c | 1,928$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.72 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Allen | 69c | 1,500$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f49…28a0backed Chikadze | 36c | 550.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…197cbacked Allen | 63c | 218.41$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…8e4ebacked Allen | 71c | 211.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…9a8cbacked Allen | 69c | 164.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6694…b08bbacked Chikadze | 34c | 147.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…64abbacked Allen | 66c | 135.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Allen | 72c | 55.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Allen | 69c | 52.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…9dfebacked Allen | 65c | 46.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Allen | 67c | 45.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…2f09backed Chikadze | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Allen | 64c | 38.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…4a88backed Allen | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…682dbacked Chikadze | 35c | 33.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Allen | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Allen | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…04cabacked Allen | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…8251backed Allen | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b4…909ebacked Allen | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…e6cebacked Allen | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…b701backed Allen | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Allen | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Allen | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 304: Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadzethis page
- UFC 304: King Green vs. Paddy PimblettPimblett won
- UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal MuhammadMuhammad won
- UFC 304: Muhammad Mokaev vs. Manel KapeMokaev won
- UFC 304: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis BlaydesAspinall won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.