NBA · resolved market
Will Stephon Castle win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9a46c3f60fd652aef010f005990fa8bd1db85487a3a7ae762cdad6cbd5b51cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb01b…c5c1backed Yes | 12c | 2,830$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…5eecbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…4fd3backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…d56abacked Yes | 10c | 867.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 12c | 807$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 8c | 608.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 350 | 46%161 W · 189 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…f10fbacked Yes | 19c | 533.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 266.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…f464backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 11c | 202.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79d…5489backed Yes | 15c | 196.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 14c | 120.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 475 | 35.8%170 W · 305 L | +41.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 13c | 111.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 80c | 106.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…9e2ebacked Yes | 14c | 102.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +160.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…1ddabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…cad7backed Yes | 15c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stephon Castle win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?this page
- Will Andre Jackson Jr. win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?No won
- Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?Yes won
- Will Matas Buzelis win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.