NBA · resolved market
Will Andre Jackson Jr. win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0e812f150123fa98e00e59e1c35803350f2e80e01d0f35a5505ba4b7b53038
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2273…7656backed Yes | 10c | 77,000$7,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,700 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 19c | 10,016$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.48 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…c5c1backed Yes | 12c | 1,358$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…0dd5backed Yes | 22c | 894.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Yes | 11c | 626$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 13c | 509.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 61 | 13.1%8 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…4b92backed Yes | 13c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 10c | 266.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 19c | 208$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…f464backed Yes | 18c | 189.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 182$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 76c | 161.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Yes | 36c | 129.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…e458backed Yes | 18c | 112.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…211fbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f9…8a22backed Yes | 18c | 101$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…7873backed Yes | 11c | 91.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 173 | 26.6%46 W · 127 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd8…e0e7backed Yes | 18c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a9…1ce5backed Yes | 19c | 58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…0492backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…01b3backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc799…def6backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andre Jackson Jr. win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?this page
- Will Mac McClung win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?Yes won
- Will Matas Buzelis win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?No won
- Will Stephon Castle win the 2025 NBA Slam Dunk Contest?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.