Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 29m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64dc9e07557a8c50b413a6cbb6285bcf6691a187beb84296d520b176d42d4ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 14,672$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.76 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 3c | 4,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010d…029ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,102$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,275$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 15c | 2,625$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.93 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 47c | 1,371$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.88 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,341$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 65c | 1,251$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.57 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 45c | 939.34$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.78 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 9c | 888.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…bbdcbacked Yes | 3c | 732.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…20f1backed Yes | 3c | 640$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 58c | 617.86$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.48 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5d…3deabacked Yes | 56c | 612.07$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…30a9backed Yes | 5c | 600$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf573…5910backed Yes | 8c | 545$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 33c | 525$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.45 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 477.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked No | 67c | 454$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.28 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 443.89$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.09 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 53c | 380.11$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…4f21backed Yes | 33c | 379$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef9…d93abacked Yes | 13c | 361.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed Yes | 3c | 358.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 43c | 356.58$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.14 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 63c | 339.86$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 309.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 300.1$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 30c | 274.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 47c | 269.86$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 11c | 269$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…1317backed Yes | 40c | 252.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…aff1backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 42c | 230.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 5c | 223.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…53fbbacked Yes | 16c | 183.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…1b62backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 12c | 159.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 32c | 151.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd79d…5489backed Yes | 38c | 146.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…0592backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 44c | 79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…c46fbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…9134backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 17c | 59.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 64c | 58.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 31c | 48.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 51c | 46.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 28c | 45.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked No | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…4914backed Yes | 63c | 31.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…262abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 29m?this page
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.