Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0634ac4484f4b4e244886633c15f8e22169610401ac7a44e97324615a80cc612
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 40c | 8,464$3,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,389.14 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 6c | 8,232$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.34 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 61c | 3,314$2,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.08 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,299$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,630$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,620$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8b…1e05backed Yes | 2c | 2,540$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…b761backed Yes | 3c | 1,367$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 72c | 909.11$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 837.83$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.78 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 37c | 679$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.23 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 31c | 652$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed No | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 3c | 546.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 38c | 470$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.94 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 75c | 452$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 27c | 380$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 51c | 363.53$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 10c | 355.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 65c | 341.09$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.38 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 32c | 286$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…981ebacked Yes | 34c | 278.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010d…029ebacked Yes | 12c | 245.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 29c | 179.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c7…6045backed No | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…b15fbacked Yes | 11c | 126.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 51c | 117.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 66c | 117.03$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 29c | 114.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…53fbbacked Yes | 54c | 112.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…3641backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 60c | 60.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…3de9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…75e6backed Yes | 28c | 45.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f35…dfa6backed No | 80c | 31.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 40c | 29.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 54c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?this page
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 29m?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.