Movies · resolved market
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3fa4a1c382994cd44dabdf7682144a581abc2e3d7e879bc1bb9f94061d5bd91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 56c | 3,806$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.06 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 48c | 1,434$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.13 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 65c | 1,019$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.62 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 24c | 878.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.78 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 68c | 688.44$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.88 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 57c | 589.07$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.07 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 71c | 575.87$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.51 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 512.34$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.02 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 26c | 498.67$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.6 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 62c | 491.46$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed No | 34c | 465.74$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 65c | 437.39$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 74c | 349.98$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed Yes | 17c | 340.25$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.01 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 40c | 300.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 75c | 293$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c7…6045backed No | 39c | 256.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…1317backed No | 64c | 247.05$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed Yes | 74c | 231.57$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 53c | 208.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 66c | 204$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 60c | 182.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 47c | 177$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.29 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 172$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.12 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d7…35f4backed Yes | 75c | 114.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 100.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.9 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 70c | 86.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked No | 56c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60db…423dbacked Yes | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 34c | 73.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…1dc8backed Yes | 43c | 70.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f35…dfa6backed Yes | 76c | 66.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 22c | 61.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…3de9backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…53fbbacked Yes | 48c | 41.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb9…3aa9backed Yes | 74c | 40.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf420…50c3backed Yes | 70c | 34.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 44c | 33.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 62c | 32.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…aff1backed Yes | 67c | 29.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…e00fbacked Yes | 62c | 29.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…caf0backed No | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9b…1056backed Yes | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 23m?this page
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?No won
- Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 29m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.