Token Launches · resolved market
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744043f6c1e69401b1c66cb90912dac07410a6f40d07110da6e43e9652149e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 17,886$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.72 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf8…8011backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1b…a35dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 2,400$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 1c | 2,065$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bca…12c5backed No | 69c | 1,759$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 1,611$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.79 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,374$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,360$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,295$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 78c | 1,271$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.65 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xecc3…ec76backed Yes | 4c | 1,083$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2e…8abfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 963.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 25c | 922.79$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 37c | 919.19$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 68c | 846.75$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.86 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…1837backed No | 65c | 833.39$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…24dbbacked No | 73c | 822.97$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed No | 75c | 802.49$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.49 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1199…7a6abacked No | 69c | 762.54$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 8c | 710.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 8c | 707.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…970abacked No | 53c | 673.01$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 4c | 666.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f2…80a3backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes | 9c | 604.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…80acbacked Yes | 8c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 31c | 552.2$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.12 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed No | 60c | 549.91$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.1 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffa…344cbacked Yes | 33c | 513.34$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 59c | 500$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 465.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 6c | 422.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f82…8649backed No | 67c | 368.8$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 352.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes | 12c | 346.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 60c | 333.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…8e9abacked No | 75c | 332.8$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e54…ee16backed Yes | 6c | 329.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 62c | 327.13$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.34 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…0db3backed Yes | 40c | 324.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…d038backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e45…6f64backed No | 65c | 295$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc9…148ebacked No | 71c | 275.8$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…29b1backed Yes | 40c | 251.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cad…994fbacked No | 75c | 244.34$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 66c | 225.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…7358backed Yes | 18c | 223.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a76…ba70backed No | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8736…8edcbacked Yes | 7c | 203.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…b678backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7361…7be5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…56d4backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…b5a2backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e619backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…0fefbacked No | 66c | 189.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…a34fbacked No | 64c | 186$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed No | 74c | 170.2$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed No | 69c | 168.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…de36backed Yes | 48c | 164.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 161.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed No | 65c | 153.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…d99ebacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 34c | 136.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 17c | 124.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes | 12c | 121.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e00…12cebacked Yes | 15c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 62c | 118.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…17adbacked No | 63c | 107.84$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ced6backed Yes | 48c | 103.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e99…a10cbacked Yes | 17c | 101.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…55b0backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48c4…7e92backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f5…9e65backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…46f6backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…edfbbacked No | 80c | 99.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6663…15a5backed No | 65c | 98.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…c26fbacked Yes | 15c | 89.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a2…a1cabacked Yes | 38c | 88.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae2…0999backed No | 63c | 77.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…fc53backed Yes | 37c | 73.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…243abacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb029…4601backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…d802backed Yes | 44c | 67.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -6.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…21d8backed Yes | 18c | 61.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $30M one day after launch?Yes won
- Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.