TailMyPicks
Market

Token Launches · resolved market

Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes9c17,886$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.7210521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf8…8011backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b1b…a35dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c2,400$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.53283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes1c2,065$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.751741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0048…ab1cbacked Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6202737%10 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bca…12c5backed No69c1,759$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes9c1,611$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.79407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c1,400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c1,374$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.811343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c1,360$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.081234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c1,295$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.951424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf17…6cc6backed No78c1,271$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.653666.7%24 W · 12 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+45.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xecc3…ec76backed Yes4c1,083$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e2e…8abfbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes4c963.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.91243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes25c922.79$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4414141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes37c919.19$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed No68c846.75$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.867657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbbb4…1837backed No65c833.39$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.55560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+36.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef65…24dbbacked No73c822.97$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.631172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe7…44a2backed No75c802.49$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.493534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.12442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1199…7a6abacked No69c762.54$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.59944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes8c710.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981f…8993backed Yes8c707.17$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.772236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1c…970abacked No53c673.01$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.961643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes4c666.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.342020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50f2…80a3backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes9c604.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd08…80acbacked Yes8c600$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes31c552.2$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.128052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed No60c549.91$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.19046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ffa…344cbacked Yes33c513.34$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No59c500$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20415362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c465.4$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.657663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes6c422.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.378728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2f82…8649backed No67c368.8$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes30c352.48$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.742416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-74.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes12c350$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes12c346.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed No60c333.43$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.434946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc293…8e9abacked No75c332.8$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+102.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e54…ee16backed Yes6c329.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No62c327.13$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.349942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b52…0db3backed Yes40c324.29$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.721428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b97…0efebacked No58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1263666.7%24 W · 12 L+6.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+38.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x19d0…d038backed Yes5c300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eb4…0872backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144351.2%22 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-16.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e45…6f64backed No65c295$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.252962.1%18 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+69.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1bc9…148ebacked No71c275.8$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfa…29b1backed Yes40c251.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cad…994fbacked No75c244.34$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.081258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed No66c225.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.819254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c3…7358backed Yes18c223.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a76…ba70backed No70c220$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-41.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8736…8edcbacked Yes7c203.43$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff44…b678backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid+42%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7361…7be5backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd5…8d10backed Yes30c200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-61.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x487a…56d4backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed37…b5a2backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee5e…e619backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0822…84e5backed No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+206.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No52c199.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9614548.3%70 W · 75 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5353…0fefbacked No66c189.61$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…a34fbacked No64c186$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.12552%13 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+74.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x41fd…4bf8backed No74c170.2$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+62.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84da…0a03backed No69c168.47$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.874050%20 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f23…de36backed Yes48c164.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes21c161.03$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3346320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9767…b5c4backed No65c153.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.111040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e01…d99ebacked Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes34c136.29$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.718144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes17c124.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.068344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf5…ce60backed Yes12c121.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.882552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e00…12cebacked Yes15c120$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-79.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No62c118.03$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5610370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba1…17adbacked No63c107.84$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.91450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4129…ced6backed Yes48c103.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e99…a10cbacked Yes17c101.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f63…55b0backed No62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x48c4…7e92backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1335712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f5…9e65backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d0…46f6backed No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked Yes30c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xc81b…edfbbacked No80c99.92$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.981050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6663…15a5backed No65c98.96$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes17c91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.073495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a84…c26fbacked Yes15c89.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52528%7 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a2…a1cabacked Yes38c88.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae2…0999backed No63c77.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7420…fc53backed Yes37c73.32$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a56…243abacked No69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461050%5 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb029…4601backed Yes19c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-40.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcadc…d802backed Yes44c67.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.98140%0 W · 14 L-6.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x692e…21d8backed Yes18c61.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.