TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Rainbow FDV above $30M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,004
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$129,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,004 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1b6c…70a8backed No0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-69.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66aa…b3c2backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfe…fbdfbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf290…4a83backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee11…ed6dbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c6…69a3backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa20…a57cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…5311backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c7,544$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.117663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc67…5469backed No34c4,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa741…e365backed Yes68c4,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2802100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf23…ca8ebacked No35c2,100$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43af…12bbbacked No32c2,020$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55df…6d05backed No32c1,980$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2272…236fbacked No35c1,900$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed No35c1,101$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.131741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No12c1,101$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.272333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8670…ed5abacked Yes65c981.77$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.62475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee1…16debacked No25c872.63$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2173745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No20c758.67$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.3414141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed No12c717.34$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.085453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42c4…93a7backed No13c628.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.876127.9%17 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No21c597.26$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.51407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67c1…8083backed Yes73c592.15$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.35560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+285.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8a…15f7backed Yes77c500$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cab…417abacked No22c431.44$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.862356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5669…e058backed No21c399.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b9a…12a5backed No16c336.92$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.53330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c77…f1d6backed No29c314.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.412128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes77c302.5$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8911145.9%51 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No24c259.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.418344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5316…4ae5backed No20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f45…6bf7backed Yes63c237.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.22250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c222.95$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6235712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No11c219.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.029914.1%14 W · 85 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No33c206.53$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.374057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbef7…0b4dbacked No12c202.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.834438.6%17 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209442.6%40 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes79c200$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.612166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+31.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa547…bf03backed No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522231.8%7 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No21c188.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.793495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6640…1685backed Yes70c180$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfed…e820backed Yes77c175.04$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No32c160.06$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d50…436fbacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8e…1d33backed Yes78c152.23$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.791136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c3…1f1cbacked No20c151.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8924…ab27backed Yes65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed No34c149.98$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.995942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb9…afbbbacked Yes67c149.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.86450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93dc…5796backed No13c148.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+38.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No24c134.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8446320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Yes76c132.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.372065%13 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb4b…6b66backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed No30c108.51$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.86333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No15c106.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5117948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No17c102.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.647215.3%11 W · 61 L-17.0wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5415…2a6ebacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+61%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x279c…3ae6backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcc1…50dbbacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1861…fa95backed No14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5f…1d83backed No21c98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.013619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6498…1fc1backed Yes77c95.57$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.23757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bb7…dad6backed No35c95.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334729.8%14 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0303…2ae3backed Yes72c86.33$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.411040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6b4…4454backed No35c82.68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81b4…d205backed Yes65c76.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.52911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-83%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes66c73.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.061050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xedaa…5786backed No24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbc…167cbacked Yes61c65.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.611145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea0c…0506backed Yes69c62.36$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6088…09bbbacked No20c51.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeeb…dd00backed No25c51.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda57…e628backed Yes79c49.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55048%24 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa988…f921backed No21c49.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283a…e607backed Yes71c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd90…418ebacked No37c32.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf30d…c9d0backed Yes65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d8…ce04backed Yes71c26.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+84.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd062…7929backed Yes80c23.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.782744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3477…3aafbacked Yes74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec26…c346backed Yes71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d65…ee79backed Yes79c18.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a8…8718backed Yes79c13.58$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.