Token Launches · resolved market
Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x344eb81e0ed34c513f3b4c36600b2c72168e5d66660eb9be6418ac3575aebf9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 29,842$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.36 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c1…0918backed Yes | 4c | 13,444$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,875$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,767$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,281$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,249$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,118$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,066$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…4b69backed Yes | 8c | 1,013$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 984.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 980$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 980$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2dd6backed Yes | 2c | 958.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…07fbbacked Yes | 2c | 928.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes | 2c | 922.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed Yes | 4c | 850$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 15c | 710.16$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…570bbacked Yes | 4c | 680$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc3…ec76backed Yes | 3c | 640$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83e…b11bbacked Yes | 8c | 609.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes | 13c | 436.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 434.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 373.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…52a5backed Yes | 7c | 360$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 14c | 346$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 338.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…f8cdbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…8e9abacked Yes | 9c | 251.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 6c | 232.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 9c | 217.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 17c | 207$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…ca21backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 6c | 199$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a0…d16cbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…2151backed Yes | 14c | 148.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed Yes | 14c | 125.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 10c | 104.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8da…ac54backed Yes | 16c | 82.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…fc53backed Yes | 16c | 76.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $30M one day after launch?Yes won
- Rainbow FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.