Token Launches · resolved market
Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x531fb2616295ae90718e25d49a80392652271b91507aff95b3ddc36244e70405
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe059…3ddabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…aca5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 9,881$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.68 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 30c | 5,049$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…f8c4backed No | 72c | 4,989$3,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.66 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…4206backed No | 77c | 3,870$2,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.77 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 6c | 3,124$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 2,543$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…1e80backed Yes | 1c | 2,466$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed Yes | 7c | 2,200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 64c | 2,094$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.8 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,037$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 31c | 2,017$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 55c | 1,615$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.24 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…c691backed Yes | 29c | 1,610$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.35 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 1,559$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.64 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…ac2bbacked No | 63c | 1,416$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…078abacked No | 71c | 1,184$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.83 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,080$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 68c | 1,000$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 32c | 998.77$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.09 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 977.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 23c | 938.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.14 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…00b6backed Yes | 10c | 935.89$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…83dfbacked Yes | 54c | 930.98$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6088…09bbbacked Yes | 1c | 905.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 25c | 842.44$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.81 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa172…b716backed Yes | 23c | 782$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.86 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 70c | 766.31$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 742.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e9…fcc9backed No | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 73c | 655.88$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.36 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 632.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…e141backed Yes | 29c | 597.72$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8184…8040backed Yes | 26c | 589.28$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ced…1f21backed No | 72c | 545.25$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986f…438bbacked Yes | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.85 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 49c | 496.71$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.11 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 23c | 495.63$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…f5cfbacked No | 69c | 492.57$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 431.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 40c | 429$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.15 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed No | 70c | 425.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…13f8backed Yes | 31c | 407.02$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed No | 43c | 404.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.09 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 72c | 402.07$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed Yes | 32c | 374.29$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 71c | 364.82$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.84 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d42…070abacked No | 65c | 318$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae5…4f22backed No | 67c | 304.9$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.62 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 34c | 303.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.63 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cb…bd5fbacked No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed No | 61c | 294.26$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af2…5212backed No | 70c | 291$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ea…3955backed Yes | 28c | 287.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 37c | 257$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x995a…a33abacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes | 32c | 218.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x319a…03cebacked Yes | 28c | 215.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…a6dfbacked Yes | 25c | 215$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…5786backed No | 79c | 210$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7af…1e9fbacked Yes | 33c | 206.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…5796backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x487a…56d4backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…b5a2backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca25…c004backed No | 74c | 192$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…d99ebacked Yes | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed No | 53c | 189.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.81 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 6c | 188.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes | 46c | 185.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58b…51fdbacked No | 63c | 168$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…0db3backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed No | 71c | 159.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea2…08a8backed No | 66c | 159.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes | 32c | 150.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 145.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 55c | 142.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…3979backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked No | 66c | 140$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…fef3backed No | 67c | 139.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…aaefbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 23c | 132.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 67c | 131.21$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b1…7590backed Yes | 33c | 127.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffa…344cbacked Yes | 51c | 120.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 31c | 119.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1c…a94dbacked No | 79c | 115.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196c…0ffdbacked No | 64c | 107.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a84…c26fbacked Yes | 40c | 105.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 77c | 103.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…777ebacked Yes | 30c | 103.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 77c | 100.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked No | 69c | 100.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $30M one day after launch?Yes won
- Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?No won
- Rainbow FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.