TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Rainbow FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$118,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,476 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe059…3ddabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3609…aca5backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes13c9,881$1,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.6810521.9%23 W · 82 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-44.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc903…b175backed Yes30c5,049$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,516.253857.9%22 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+46.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xef94…f8c4backed No72c4,989$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,395.663756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x716d…4206backed No77c3,870$2,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.771080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes6c3,124$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.285238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c2,543$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.652333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d29…1e80backed Yes1c2,466$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe730…e424backed Yes7c2,200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526934.8%24 W · 45 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0822…84e5backed No64c2,094$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.83063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+206.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,037$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed Yes31c2,017$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6245846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf17…6cc6backed No55c1,615$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.243666.7%24 W · 12 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+45.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2aa1…c691backed Yes29c1,610$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.354050%20 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+37.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes28c1,559$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.64407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-76.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa85f…ac2bbacked No63c1,416$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.82657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c06…078abacked No71c1,184$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.41250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed Yes17c1,176$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.838630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a97…593dbacked Yes18c1,080$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.68728.7%25 W · 62 L-14.9wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.1%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No68c1,000$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3218744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed Yes32c998.77$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.093318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c977.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.733283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked Yes23c938.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.143438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x302e…00b6backed Yes10c935.89$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44dd…83dfbacked Yes54c930.98$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6088…09bbbacked Yes1c905.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes25c842.44$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.815127.5%14 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa172…b716backed Yes23c782$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.863531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-43.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd0b9…74d8backed No70c766.31$533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.52770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c742.5$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.567663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e9…fcc9backed No71c704.23$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No73c655.88$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3615041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c632.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.552094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c599.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c599.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41243.2%4 W · 120 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3997…e141backed Yes29c597.72$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.3430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8184…8040backed Yes26c589.28$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ced…1f21backed No72c545.25$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.083729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-34.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21343.7%5 W · 129 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x986f…438bbacked Yes33c499.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.853432.4%11 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes49c496.71$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.117021.4%15 W · 55 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes23c495.63$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.992317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-76.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x44d9…f5cfbacked No69c492.57$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes22c431.68$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0135712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes40c429$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.154742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed No70c425.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.561020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcd…13f8backed Yes31c407.02$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed No43c404.75$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.094528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed No72c402.07$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.598558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes32c374.29$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.153237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No71c364.82$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.848344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d42…070abacked No65c318$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed No67c304.9$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.622065%13 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x981f…8993backed Yes34c303.9$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.632236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35cb…bd5fbacked No47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1592157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+45.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21b2…b602backed No61c294.26$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.765942.4%25 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af2…5212backed No70c291$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.332458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ea…3955backed Yes28c287.7$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed Yes37c257$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.472254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x995a…a33abacked Yes39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes32c218.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x319a…03cebacked Yes28c215.35$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa872…a6dfbacked Yes25c215$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.114438.6%17 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xedaa…5786backed No79c210$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.14643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7af…1e9fbacked Yes33c206.06$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93dc…5796backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+38.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x487a…56d4backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed37…b5a2backed Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca25…c004backed No74c192$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.021070%7 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e01…d99ebacked Yes28c190$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb27f…2c41backed No53c189.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.811758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes6c188.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.614320.9%9 W · 34 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca4…923dbacked Yes46c185.74$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.786245.2%28 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf58b…51fdbacked No63c168$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.583253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b52…0db3backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed No71c159.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea2…08a8backed No66c159.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf625…9d5dbacked Yes32c150.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.85219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes21c145.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.683495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No55c142.39$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6814141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked No70c142.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.254060%24 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbfb…3979backed No71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.85966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a6…588ebacked No66c140$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.22356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56a3…fef3backed No67c139.88$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.741741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2633…aaefbacked No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes23c132.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed No67c131.21$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.37745.5%35 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b1…7590backed Yes33c127.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ffa…344cbacked Yes51c120.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes31c119.74$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.076911.6%8 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-61.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f1c…a94dbacked No79c115.89$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x196c…0ffdbacked No64c107.28$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.183447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a84…c26fbacked Yes40c105.06$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.942528%7 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No77c103.63$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7113054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8baa…777ebacked Yes30c103.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No77c100.75$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.944544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c1…6c6cbacked No69c100.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.09785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-32.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.