Stocks · resolved market
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c1e362faefe4c2b65eaabd57422cbe25b0508ccee8eb7a973bd3c03b3f32f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc583…7a35backed Yes | 1c | 5,400$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,823.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3047…4217backed Yes | 1c | 3,842$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 2,197$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 1c | 1,764$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a5…a77bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,675$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x503e…465cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,667$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ad…2963backed Yes | 1c | 1,643$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5185…286abacked Yes | 1c | 1,605$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779b…f390backed Yes | 1c | 1,163$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…9de7backed Yes | 18c | 640$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 596.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 9c | 587.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 14c | 556.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 8c | 502.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 496.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 17c | 434.42$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…976bbacked Yes | 18c | 365.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 7c | 363.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e5…6d71backed Yes | 24c | 251$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes | 13c | 249$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 240.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 13c | 220$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 202.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc168…5024backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…4442backed No | 76c | 198.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…99acbacked Yes | 13c | 157.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 20c | 146.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed Yes | 19c | 125.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed Yes | 13c | 125.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 19c | 113.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…7372backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 25c | 102.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…f4c4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 11c | 98.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 19c | 98.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…b99cbacked Yes | 15c | 92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 66.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 28c | 65.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked No | 79c | 49.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.