Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc1a303f0791f7f615a152aa3a3d8d0791511724914b720d262fcc8b60801b0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 1c | 2,621$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,232$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x808c…0aa2backed Yes | 3c | 778.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 727.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac88…44adbacked Yes | 5c | 686.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 35c | 598.34$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 23c | 583.85$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.74 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 495.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 358$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 3c | 323.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 298.82$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 11c | 263.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 11c | 261$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 231.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Yes | 22c | 224.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 33c | 209.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…a453backed Yes | 26c | 191.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 188$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 10c | 161.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 147.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 139.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 63c | 138.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 26c | 135$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 36c | 130.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 27c | 122.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 119.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x763e…586ebacked Yes | 26c | 116.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 27c | 114.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 99.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 97.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 96.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 93.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 89.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…5ae8backed Yes | 30c | 82.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…87b5backed Yes | 24c | 81.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 24c | 78.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 73.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 64.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 61.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 60.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…3e6ebacked Yes | 19c | 57.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 50.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 46.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 26c | 44.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 26c | 40.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 36.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 64c | 33.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 32.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 31.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 26.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 20.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 71c | 18.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 78c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 76c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.