TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,029

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xda33…daccbacked No20c5,200$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0165834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…abcebacked Yes45c2,410$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.616724.6%41 W · 126 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes68c1,520$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.7616543.6%72 W · 93 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No2c758.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1754234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No40c612.43$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.464,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No79c500.19$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.222,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No78c500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39029345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…0bfdbacked Yes39c476.67$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c472.6$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.085,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes32c436.73$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.983,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes33c355.47$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.0265934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf369…c701backed No20c346.91$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No32c335.25$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.491,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No44c333.19$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c329.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c325.37$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.863,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes23c314.5$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.5156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ca…59eebacked No57c299.72$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.175729.8%17 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c290.99$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.0410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No68c290$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.11,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No61c266.19$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes65c226.77$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4910030%30 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No66c222.41$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes40c218.28$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.617643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes40c215$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.751,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe62c…adc5backed No66c203.87$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.211275%9 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes29c200$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14224432.8%80 W · 164 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No69c187.79$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.84,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bee…e91ebacked Yes37c150.61$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.73955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes37c150$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.581848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No25c146.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.061,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes33c146.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.919832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c143.39$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.439,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c140.47$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.615,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes77c139.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No66c135.69$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2323666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No33c130.84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7711157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No70c125.11$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.534,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No61c120.23$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.757,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c117.14$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.343,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No66c115.07$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5725358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c115$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.474,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No12c114.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.136,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes42c111.58$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0113042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes33c107$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.221,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No21c106.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.81,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No63c106$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.863757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes34c103.77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4956543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes78c102.02$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.725350.9%27 W · 26 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No63c100.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3240352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes30c100.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.171031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2af3…c472backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-39.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6339427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9625…ec8ebacked No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639145.1%41 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+35.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No63c100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6315345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86cc…f46ebacked No61c98.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.082050%10 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes29c96.94$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.943,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c92.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.412,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcca2…fa31backed Yes35c90$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.53745.9%17 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+48.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes11c89.49$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.231,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c89$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes58c86.19$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1945238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd221…4331backed No63c85.55$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.199746.4%45 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No23c81.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.442,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes36c80.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7218035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x342c…de11backed Yes64c80$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2917241.9%72 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No59c79.82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0948743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a1…a453backed Yes34c76.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes34c76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9116724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes36c74.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c73.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.988,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes37c70$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.116437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.417644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15c0…befdbacked Yes40c69.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.742931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes38c67.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.375,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x376c…41acbacked Yes44c65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.44533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes36c64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.881,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No64c63.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.722,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbf…b9edbacked Yes40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9301…388cbacked No77c61.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.212070%14 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes38c60$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.28543.5%37 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes34c60$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed No70c60$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.216550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No73c59.19$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2113852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes35c57.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.779425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60ce…b36fbacked Yes43c57.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.663852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5605…2112backed No66c57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.692352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No19c55.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.362,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No77c54.26$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8625766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No74c54.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.763,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No66c54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes28c53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.261,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked No67c52.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.385468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No73c52.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.331,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd9c…f0c8backed No61c51.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.127347.9%35 W · 38 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No48c50.96$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2937669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.