TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,293 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2291…b0c9backed No0c2,150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No24c819.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.823158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No44c790.83$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.364,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No16c636.22$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1676924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No14c549.16$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.72,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes69c508.05$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No54c452.49$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.992,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c444.41$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.361,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes39c444.31$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.3117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes78c419.67$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.739634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No64c406$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.124,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c390.25$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.862,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c382$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No49c351.41$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.741,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No67c339.87$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.999963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No48c285.69$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.233,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No29c281.61$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c246$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.313,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes43c234.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.0145238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8774…d1f1backed Yes44c226.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.151838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes45c219.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8211637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes52c219.38$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.85,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9948…5da1backed No9c215.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.995453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No8c211.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.561,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cb…4629backed Yes19c208.42$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.4215321.6%33 W · 120 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed Yes38c199.98$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.993514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-45.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes27c183.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.389425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c176.18$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.024,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x393e…b2f0backed No57c175.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.884163.4%26 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes62c174.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes18c164.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9456434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes27c164.74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.248,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No75c157.73$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8920172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c05…416cbacked Yes38c155.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.841118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-48%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes40c151.42$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.427328.8%21 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes46c149.81$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.543941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes49c146.9$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.34757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes59c144.6$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.654154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed Yes35c142.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.073938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes41c140.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7711038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes39c138.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.8611337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes28c132.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c128.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No68c128$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5233567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf12b…525cbacked Yes43c124.91$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a6…4e4bbacked Yes52c123.87$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes41c122.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0618534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes41c120$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes39c115.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked Yes76c114.36$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.24551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes36c112.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.1320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes17c109.79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.794652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes55c109.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd521…cd0fbacked Yes45c107.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes37c106.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.82634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No58c101.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.012,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes70c101.61$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.111,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba47…df90backed Yes42c99.98$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.991758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed Yes38c99.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes40c99.71$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5112941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No42c97.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.274,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No62c96.65$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9883360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes45c96.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.084139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No54c95.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.339157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee24…bd15backed Yes46c92.87$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.776636.4%24 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes26c90.62$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6593837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes19c90$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.93938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes23c87.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2729941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No58c85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes45c84.36$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.366336.5%23 W · 40 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c83.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.572,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f22…db25backed Yes30c80$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No20c80$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No61c78.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2413755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes23c78.05$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.461,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x503f…2313backed Yes43c76.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.93,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe9…affdbacked Yes36c71.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.23837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6028…a32dbacked Yes38c66.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.05540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes46c65.58$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5821847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No35c62.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1948…ff2fbacked Yes17c61.23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes48c61.03$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.635349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed No59c61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1124053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes23c59.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.791,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa99…29afbacked Yes41c57.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.266642.4%28 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes36c55.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.549425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes30c54.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.458337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes47c52.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2799949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c52.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.347,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…780fbacked Yes36c52.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.553441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No68c51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.682,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f5e…0339backed Yes36c50.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2839427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3511032.7%36 W · 74 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.54129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No68c49.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.