Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63e37ccb1e9c8e8e37aaf2bbb2aab628e13596d61e616b9126c7e2c15fbff1cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2291…b0c9backed No | 0c | 2,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 24c | 819.99$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.82 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 790.83$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.36 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 16c | 636.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 14c | 549.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes | 69c | 508.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 452.49$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 444.41$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.36 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 39c | 444.31$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.31 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 78c | 419.67$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 406$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 390.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 382$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 49c | 351.41$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.74 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 339.87$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.9 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 285.69$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 281.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 246$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.31 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 43c | 234.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.01 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8774…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 226.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 45c | 219.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 219.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 9c | 215.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 211.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 19c | 208.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.42 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 38c | 199.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 27c | 183.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 176.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 57c | 175.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 62c | 174.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 18c | 164.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 164.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 75c | 157.73$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.89 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Yes | 38c | 155.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 40c | 151.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.42 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 46c | 149.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…8f5ebacked Yes | 49c | 146.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 59c | 144.6$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 35c | 142.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 41c | 140.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 39c | 138.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.86 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 28c | 132.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.17 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 128.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 128$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12b…525cbacked Yes | 43c | 124.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…4e4bbacked Yes | 52c | 123.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 41c | 122.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 115.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked Yes | 76c | 114.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 36c | 112.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 17c | 109.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.79 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 55c | 109.49$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…cd0fbacked Yes | 45c | 107.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 37c | 106.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 101.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 70c | 101.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…c153backed Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 40c | 99.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 97.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 96.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 45c | 96.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 54c | 95.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 46c | 92.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.77 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 90.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 23c | 87.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 58c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 45c | 84.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…db25backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 61c | 78.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 23c | 78.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…2313backed Yes | 43c | 76.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…affdbacked Yes | 36c | 71.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6028…a32dbacked Yes | 38c | 66.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 46c | 65.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 62.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1948…ff2fbacked Yes | 17c | 61.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 48c | 61.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 59c | 61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 23c | 59.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 41c | 57.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 36c | 55.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 30c | 54.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 47c | 52.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 52.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked Yes | 36c | 52.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5e…0339backed Yes | 36c | 50.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.