Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9d04a5204cadfaf72d26b3cd97e71d5156e536ce7929f71e419088da333447a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f4…0dbbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,738$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 4c | 1,249$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 23c | 982.81$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.25 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 895$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 2c | 866.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 1c | 725$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 706.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 621.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 3c | 501.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 19c | 500$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 496.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 10c | 432.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 412.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 4c | 408.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 14c | 360.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 23c | 345.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 4c | 335.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 326.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 314$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 19c | 299.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 5c | 294.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 287.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 7c | 270$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 5c | 254.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 252$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 20c | 250.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 7c | 229.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…0b5fbacked Yes | 18c | 214.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 7c | 154.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 9c | 143.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 16c | 123.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 20c | 121.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 12c | 103$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…4e4bbacked Yes | 23c | 101.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 101.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 15c | 91.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…e597backed No | 77c | 90.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 76c | 87.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 75c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 22.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…7a33backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…1e97backed No | 76c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.