Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f19003a573e3bdd393e17cd1b413aab87f25de7e96acf6a3db830f55994943d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 4,546$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.31 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 5c | 1,961$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 1c | 1,452$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b3…f50fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,107$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 476.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 9c | 358.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 357.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 331.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 291.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 233.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88cd…3632backed No | 50c | 208$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 13c | 204.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 7c | 166.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 13c | 162$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 143.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 13c | 140.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 35c | 130.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 129.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 126.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 107.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…c879backed Yes | 14c | 103.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 12c | 101.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…c153backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 12c | 99.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b2…31c9backed Yes | 14c | 89.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 30c | 85.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 29c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 72.17$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 70.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 65.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 46.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 30c | 43.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 24.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 74c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 71c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.