TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,356

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,868 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd281…d824backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes2c4,512$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.473941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed Yes1c2,274$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6111138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes3c1,130$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.622,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes2c887.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80cb…4629backed Yes6c608.32$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1915321.6%33 W · 120 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No79c509.64$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.684,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes7c392.44$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.774,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No70c386.02$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.13158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No71c353$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.173,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes19c333.73$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6134624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes14c300.42$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.759425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes10c299.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.317310.4%18 W · 155 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No70c284.05$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.083,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes19c279.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.718041.1%74 W · 106 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes11c267.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.417,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c253.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.182,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes14c235.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6921930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed Yes38c226.75$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.593938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c223$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.375,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes8c222.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes33c222.62$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.335427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes33c219$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5513941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes33c216.49$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1211337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c193.55$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.254,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes53c189.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes7c185.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2148…4381backed Yes34c181.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.571926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes32c180.66$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2329732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a6…4e4bbacked Yes45c179.61$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No64c178.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c177.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.445,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes11c176.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1911438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes9c172.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.959,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes29c172.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes24c165.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.149941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes48c160.35$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4510642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Yes9c159.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9416627.7%46 W · 120 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes10c151.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4243430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No63c136.27$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8776924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c133.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe06d…ac24backed Yes11c126.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.744032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes43c122.72$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.0714941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No79c120.29$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes51c107.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.798228%23 W · 59 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-47.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes34c104.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68e…a093backed Yes19c104.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209530.5%29 W · 66 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes58c103.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes55c102.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.411,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes14c101.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.163938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes49c101.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5089661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.231124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba47…df90backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes15c99.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes15c99.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes22c97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.14139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes16c94.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes15c92.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0237942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No62c92.34$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9513755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No69c86.52$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.911,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No72c86$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.744,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes24c85.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa62f…cbacbacked No70c83.14$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+194.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes41c81.72$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6267633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf12b…525cbacked Yes35c78.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453c…e82bbacked Yes26c76.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea19…f354backed Yes30c75.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.631947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b98…1e97backed Yes45c73.96$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes40c69.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bce…24cdbacked No71c68.88$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2210966.1%72 W · 37 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No60c66.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6857614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes38c64.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.355349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c35…3f6dbacked No48c63.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.998036.3%29 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes30c60.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2516144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes30c58$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6621847.7%104 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes43c57.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes36c56.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.471,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes36c55.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbce2…3aecbacked Yes36c54.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+14.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No74c53.05$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes52c53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3935742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes39c51.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.862445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e9…af97backed Yes49c50.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7210658.5%62 W · 44 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0411032.7%36 W · 74 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.954129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd10c…dd67backed Yes28c46.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No66c45.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5224768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd36b…5942backed No66c45.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.251450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes25c43.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310953.2%58 W · 51 L+19.9wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+424.1%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No73c42.92$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7338258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2995…8410backed Yes29c42.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2719632.7%64 W · 132 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No62c40.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4551553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No58c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.839157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No67c37.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3312374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No67c37.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3312670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No76c36$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7544659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No73c34.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2443859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e9…adbcbacked No76c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.742263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No40c31.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.