Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x101413fffe04f8009bc19b25d737a24c64a270eb996c9701ea5f0ba49120406f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd281…d824backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 2c | 4,512$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 1c | 2,274$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 2c | 887.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 6c | 608.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 509.64$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.68 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 392.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 386.02$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 353$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 19c | 333.73$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 14c | 300.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 284.05$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 19c | 279.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 267.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 253.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 14c | 235.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 38c | 226.75$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 223$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 222.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 33c | 222.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 33c | 219$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.55 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 33c | 216.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 193.55$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…dba8backed Yes | 53c | 189.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 7c | 185.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…4381backed Yes | 34c | 181.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 32c | 180.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…4e4bbacked Yes | 45c | 179.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 178.8$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 177.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 11c | 176.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 172.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 29c | 172.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 24c | 165.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 48c | 160.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 9c | 159.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 10c | 151.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 63c | 136.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 133.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 11c | 126.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 43c | 122.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 79c | 120.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 51c | 107.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 34c | 104.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…a093backed Yes | 19c | 104.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 58c | 103.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 55c | 102.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 14c | 101.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 49c | 101.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 15c | 99.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 99.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 16c | 94.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 15c | 92.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 62c | 92.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 86.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 24c | 85.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62f…cbacbacked No | 70c | 83.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 81.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12b…525cbacked Yes | 35c | 78.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…e82bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 30c | 75.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…1e97backed Yes | 45c | 73.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 69.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 71c | 68.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 60c | 66.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 38c | 64.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 48c | 63.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 30c | 60.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 30c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…dc72backed Yes | 43c | 57.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 56.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 36c | 55.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…3aecbacked Yes | 36c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 53.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 52c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 49c | 50.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…dd67backed Yes | 28c | 46.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed No | 66c | 45.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 25c | 43.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 73c | 42.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 29c | 42.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 62c | 40.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 67c | 37.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 67c | 37.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 73c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e9…adbcbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 31.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.